Interesting analysis. Although mining is only one factor which you should take into consideration when figuring out trend changes.
When price is too low to be profitable miners quit, close their businesses and dificulty falls making it easier and cheaper to mine. This is the main fundamental. So this has to do mostly with adoption. Miners think they dictate the prices but they can't be more wrong. Price is about supply/demand. Supply is finite with Bitcoin. We can only have 21m and this is a critical factor that makes it's price rise astronomically. The other factor is adoption (demand). Seeing how there is no massive adoption, as it was happening at the same month 2 years ago, I can only see price going down for the time being.