These "studious" investors that did their homework, do appear to have been suckered in for an 80% or more loss.
However one glimour of hope I see, is the potential of approx 75% increse one year on from the 3rd halving, call it the halving period average price.
So thats the potenial of an average price of about $11900 from 2021 onwards!?
But that only applies if all is as perfect as possible! I can't see it happening, that will be well over a decade and if still no signs of bitcoin adoption (i've still not been able to buy a single product at high street retail with bitcoin in the EU since 2012 when i got involved)
Whatever bitcoin was supposed to be, a currency or store of value, it's still not widley addpoted and heavily flawed.
Based on that and other TA and oppinions I've seen, looks like 2 more years of the bear market. $2600 best case scenario or lower probable bottom.
Shelby Moore believes its going to $775, and links it with the scenario of a
hard fork.I believed in a
three-digit scenario last year, but then the market recovered and we got out of the "despair phase" in the
standard bubble chart. As you can see, the black line marks the mean value. We are already in a new cycle, and possibly in the "first sell off" phase.
For this reason I dont believe, right now, that we will see 3k again.
We can still fall to 5k, though.Yeah, Shelby / anunymint quoted for being a pie in the sky dumb-ass might be appropriate. There are definitely bitcoin naysayers out there, like Shelby/anunymint, jonoiv, and others, who are wishing either that bitcoin has not transitioned out of its previous bear market (of 2018) (seems like decently odds of well-less than 40% of going back into a bear market now), and/or that bitcoin will experience a convincing technical obstacle, such as the bullshit lack of segwit adoption attack scenario, that anunymint continues to spout off about (seemingly less than 5%), which will cause BTC prices to fall or some other currently stupid-ass scam coin (such as bcash or ethereum or some other largely smoke and mirrors project) to take up some of bitcoin's networking effects to become the credibly dominant coin.
I suppose that some of these nutjobs do reasonably understand that any scenario of a serious bitcoin demise would cripple almost any meaningful chance for another crypto to take it's place, but those bitcoinnaysayer altcoin pumping nutjobs likely don't care too much about actual likely outcomes because they rely upon naive folks to actually give more weight to their their pie in the sky scenarios since most of the smarter bitcoiners do seem to realize that successful FUD spreading only needs to contain a scintilla of actual truth in order to allow the desired effect in which scintilla scenarios are granted way more probability weight than they deserve - and get way more air-time than they deserve.
