Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.
We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.
We might and we might not, lol.
Im more on the bearish side right now.
65% going to 6k vs 35% going to 9k.
Im looking for a short entry here.
Could be. Your odds seem in the ballpark of reasonable, even though I continue towards 50/50 thinking because I hate to make any bets in the way that I approach my BTC holdings (which I prefer to assure that I am adding to my reserves, rather than gambling that I may or may not add to my reserves).
Anyhow, I merely buy if the BTC price goes down and sell if the price goes up. Seems safe, no?
In this case, I have already sold all the way up to $9k, so in recent times I have been put into buying mode, so my buy orders have been executing as the BTC price has been going down.
Seems to work a lot better than trying to guess, and even if I were to have more confidence - such as something above 60%, which you seem to have, and even if you are guessing in a kind of reasonable way, to me, it seems as if you are betting too... because one thing is to close a long by selling a little bit of BTC, but another extra risk is to add leverage onto the situation by entering into a short position (which is what you said that you are doing)... too scary for me, and too much gambling for my risk tolerance temperament in terms of my preference to preserve what BTCs I have worked so hard to accumulate over the past 5.5 years.
That slow buying is easy, however slow selling is more problematic, especially since some coins you bought 5.5 years ago, although it depends on whether you use FIFO or LIFO accounting (the latter is simpler, but maybe less common). FIFO would guarantee at least long term cap gains status, which is much lower in US vs short term gains that are taxed by your tax bracket.
In addition, in a case of an old coin sell, properly splitting off at least 3, maybe 4 meaningful forks is also an annoying task.
I will agree that accounting complicates matters; however, the point that I was making in my above post related to a practice that seems to be betting on one direction or another... namely down in the case that criptix was describing.
Accordingly, there have been a large number of folks who had been betting on down since April 1 and even before that - remember April 1 and crossing over the $4,200 threshold in a kind of violent upwards movement. Thereafter, the bets continue to come in for DOWN, and yeah sooner or later the down bets are going to be correct... but are they ready to be correct? I would not mind being able to buy some more bitcoin, but I also don't mind going to $12k before our inevitable meaningful correction takes place.
Just because we have a current BTC price correction thats gotten down to the 15% to 17% arena does not mean that we are going to get a 30% to 40% correction, which seems to be the arena that criptix is anticipating with a 65% confidence level.
I cannot help myself to continue to remain largely agnostic in my ways of thinking about short-term bitcoin price directions.
Sure, it was fair for criptix to select a price range of $6k to $9k because that seems to be going (in the ballpark) about the same amount of upwards or downwards price movement, of about $1,500 from our current price and assigning probabilities to those opposing directions... saying that it is decently higher likelihood that BTC's price is going down, rather than up. Even though he is assigning a 15% higher likelihood off of my 50% thinking, he ends up having a 30% gap between his down prediction and his up prediction, which shows that the gap between up and down is greater than what it might first appear to be, and I just have difficulties assigning those kinds of high probabilities (even when they seem low) to predicting BTC's short term price direction - and further putting money on such a bet.