Who forecast that the Yield on 10-Year Treasury note would fall bellow 2.5% this year? Martin? NO Socrates? NO
Not a single market forecaster/analyst respondent in January´s Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicted that:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1138184175201193984You know who called the timing of the last recessions? Nobody. Not the Fed, not economists. Why? Because nobody knows. Confidence and cycles are very tricky things. In case of the Fed I would go further and say that, even if they knew, which they don't, they wouldn't tell anybody!
Now back to primary reason you using Socrates/MA forecasts as investment/trading tool. Do you know what is the forecasts hit rate of MA in last 4 years? No more than 30%, so clearly you have negative expectation of using it as a trading/investing tool.
I will not comment on forecast accuracy of Socrates as it don´t forecast anything, is just a software created +30 years on MS-DOS disaster code & full of bugs but back then that created one of the 1st financial markets historic database of prices and some few technical indicators, on the time that most of the exchanges floor traders markets resources were made by pen+paper. Cutting-edge breaking 30 years ago, underdog nowadays to any current available technical/financial software available on the market.
If you believe that GOD, super-computer or any person on earth could reach a hit Rate forecasting financial markets of +80%, why do you think he/she will give it away for free on his blog or sell that information instead of leverage their own capital with huge debt and put their own $ on that very accurate forecasts?
Over last 4 years, a small group of high skilled/experienced persons on different areas from Trading, risk management, software engineers, code writers, we have back-test +90% market approaches, theories, strategies including reversals, cycles, Elliot waves, fibonacci, Gann, Pii cycles and all kind of technical analysis tools (which all are basically derivation of the same thing - price, volume and cycles/seasonal information, which is the main information available on all markets).
The main conclusion we had reached is that as we try to build a system that reach 70-80% winning trades, the profit of system would drop exponential as the number of trades/year would be reduced exponential and lot of confirmations needed to +70% win rate on trades bring up exponential rise in price risk (the % risk that you have to take or simply speaking the risk/reward ratio will be too high and getting exponential worst as the systems approach +75% winning trades). So, with that in mind, the Win Rate of system isn´t a good measure of their performance, risk/reward ratio or profit factor is much more useful.
I have attended 2 WEC´s already and wasted lot of hours reading MA blog posts and I never ear/read in
it the profit factor/ risk/reward ratio of any back-test in any instrument in Socrates, but read/ear several claims that Socrates never wrong, he´s always right which is nonsense to anyone with a basic understanding that financial markets are the most competitive markets in the world, so even the best traders/investors edge is very small and of course very far from 100%.
We have to give, merit to MA in one thing. He´s a hell of a salesmen/marketeer! He´s the only person in the world that can Sell a market history review class (WEC conferences) for $2750 or having people paying minimum +$2000/year to beta test 1 instrument/market access in the Socrates database/ black box system. He have top-notch charisma, when you´re close to him and ear him speaking you completely forget that what he´s saying can´t be real, isn´t possible on earth a system/super-computer that is always right or anything close to it.
RS
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA