Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Quote
According to Grayscale, many investors are not aware of the bitcoin block reward halving.
As such, it still remains a key factor for the price and it is not completely priced in.
"We were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event." (Grayscale)
As such, it still remains a key factor for the price and it is not completely priced in.
"We were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event." (Grayscale)
https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung/status/1136949078879744000
Interesting because there was a lot of debate if the recent price action was due to markets being efficient with people pricing in halving effect before halving actually happening. Public information being incorporated in current market prices is what characterise efficient markets. Something should be granted in a mature market like the one bitcoin begins to be.
This is also scaring because grayscale targets institutional investors. I would have tough this kind of investors had done the basic due diligence of the technology. How can be prepared to invest millions in BTC without even knowing what an halving is?
This is scary. They are ready to invest in something they basically dont know about.
There was a lot of chatter recently about Litecoin halving, it is going to happen in less than two months.
The story goes something like this (bot voice mindlessly reading the following strategy):
Code:
LTC is going to halve in 50 or so days, so it is going to have a huge price jump.
This is also going to bode well for bitcoin that is going to have in a little less than a year!
History is going to repeat!
This is also going to bode well for bitcoin that is going to have in a little less than a year!
History is going to repeat!
Well, I would like to thing it is going according to plan, but i have a few toughs to share with you guys.
1. Bitcoin Halving rationale has to do with Stock to flow: as Bitcoin supply will suddenly reduce, there will be an imbalance with demand in bitcoin and the price will go up. Also stock to flow will rise, and bitcoin will become suddenly more scarce: then price will go up.
Well we have two propositions here, and no one will go as planned:
- LTC is not experiencing any demand like Bitcoin (e.g. Square or GBTC buying bitcoins): hence even halved offer will be sufficient to cover demand, without any actual impact on prices.
- Stock to flow models simply don't work for LTC. PlanB has some evidence on this fact:
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1137352369321234432
QuotePer request and despite the fact that I think that alts theoretically don't have 'unforgeable costliness' .. I decided to make a #Litecoin #LTC stock-to-flow model (data from Sep 2013). R2 is low .. 25%. Current S2F value is $27 (after 2019 halving $65). Can somebody pls verify?!
2. LTC is now a shitcoin like may other, gone are the times when it was seen "as Silver to Gold as Litecoin to Bitcoin". Book and liquidity is very thin, so very easy to price manipulate, to create price patterns people looking at. Once you made people think some kind of fuckery will happen when bitcoin halves, then taking profit on the back of such people is very trivial.
So take care if you want to use this argument to support your positions.