As for the circumstantial evidence link... there is some substance to it but it is marginal, in my opinion.

I'm not quite sure why the funds moved but here's something of note:

Assuming a steady income of bitcoin, Hhampuz has the ability to repay the loan.
The loan terms are unknown therefore we cannot conclude anything of the date of repayment.
We can assume but we do not know how much bitcoin Hhampuz has in any alternative wallets.
We can assume but we do not know how much bitcoin Hhampuz makes in a given period of time.
We can assume but we cannot conclude.