Значит считаешь, что только через 10 лет цена биткоина вырастет?

(Я одному очень мудрому человеку такой же вопрос задал - если цена биткоина вырастет, то когда это произойдет - через 3 года или через 10)

Он задумался, произвел в уме расчеты и сказал, что в течении 3 лет. 10 лет это очень большой срок для нашего динамичного времени.

А про переливать ты что имеешь ввиду? Куда переливать? Надеюсь не в bsv?

It's possible, but it's ridiculous to just draw a line on a chart and conclude that it's going to happen anytime soon. If Bitcoin reached such high prices, that'd either cause or be caused by world-shaking events: BTC would have a market cap greater than the USD M3 money supply, and quite a few BTC early adopters would have wealth comparable to countries.

The easiest way to reach $1 million will be USD hyperinflation. I think that this will happen sometime in the next 50 years, since it seems to me to be the only plausible outcome for the US's addiction to debt. But this says more about the value of USD than BTC.

To reach $1 million in today's value:

There could be truly extraordinary growth in demand, probably caused by a worldwide lack of faith in fiat or some other major event.

Even in the absence of much growth, if Bitcoin remains the premier cryptocurrency, then I'd expect the value to continuously (but not necessarily quickly) rise in real terms because BTC is highly deflationary.

I think that there's substantial room for growth in demand -- I wouldn't be surprised to see $10k again within a year or two, for example --, but I'm not sure about growth to $1 million in the next couple of decades at least. The fact is that most people are fine with using things like credit cards, bank autopayments, bank-linked payment apps, etc. They're easy enough, and since the payments are reversible, they're highly forgiving of the average person's absolutely abominable security practices. (There are of course many major problems with traditional payments, but the average person doesn't care enough.)

In order to reach $1 million levels anytime soon, we'd need at least:

Hardware infrastructure. Point-of-sale would need the equivalent of credit card terminals, and every person would need secure hardware wallets either on a dedicated device or on their phones. You need to somehow prevent almost all cases of: phishing, malware, wallet bugs, forgotten passwords, mugging someone out of their life savings, etc.

Some off-chain solution would have to be working perfectly. It's unacceptable for the average person to worry about fees or confirmations.

There'd have to be significant pull to BTC (merchants passing on lower costs, maybe) and/or significant push from fiat (eg. hyperinflation, widespread privacy concerns, confiscation, etc.).

Governments can't become too authoritarian. Bitcoin can be made to function even if every country makes it illegal, but that'd make it too difficult for ordinary people to use it. It'd be similar to how most Chinese people don't know how to bypass the Great Firewall, even though it's technically possible.

There are plausible technical solutions for at least the first two points, but we're nowhere near achieving them all.

As for value increases due to deflation: I consider it pretty likely that BTC will still be the premier cryptocurrency in 50 years; maybe an 85% probability. If so, that implies in my mind an on-average-increasing value. But even if the price goes up to $100k in 10 years through growth, I'm not sure that deflation alone will be enough to carry us to $1 million in an additional 40 years

https://mobile.twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/1137365655190216705


Вот тут очередной недоумок типа Антохи Вайсмана, на этот раз Чарли Шрем, ждет коин от фейсбука с распростертыми объятиями как убийцу рипла   Не ясно почему именно рипла, а не альтов вообще. Также не ясно что хорошего для битка несут все эти токены от морганов, фб и телеги, что многие «авторитетные» криптаны уже приветственно вазелинят свои жопы. Но самое мутное и не ясное во всем этом - как человек, считающий себя невротебенным криптаном может быть настолько тупым обсосом, чтобы не видеть очевидные опции заморозки там, где они наконец таки реально будут!   Один из комментаторов по ссылке, кстати, задал этому дурачку вопрос насчет того, что если, как известно, ФБ недостаточно надежен (мягко говоря) в вопросе сохранности личных данных, то с чего он будет надежен в вопросе сохранности денег...

I'm just gonna say it.

I think the "FacebookCoin" is an attempt by big tech, banks and credit card companies to lure people away from #Bitcoin into their "better, easier, crypto", which is nothing more than a fiat coin being masqueraded as crypto.

Millions will be fooled.