Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
PennyWiseUK
on 16/06/2019, 10:59:33 UTC
Hello everybody, greetings from UK.

I’ve lurked this board for some time but I have been LOVING this board for the last few weeks.

Thanks so much to all posters, particularly those sharing brave admissions, diligent research results, and WEC experiences.

I am NOT a trader and have no wish to be; it simply doesn’t interest me. I do invest, and I like to buy the dips, in unit trusts (mutual funds) that focus on UK and overseas equities with active management, although my US equity exposure is mostly via passive (index) funds.

I was put on to MA by a stockbroker friend around 2012/2013 and was very attracted to MA writings. I’ve always felt that with enough information you can determine pattern/s which you can use to your advantage. I was attracted enough to purchase metals reports in 2015.

My interest in MA has grown steadily and I echo all the points raised in on this board, including my own impression that the Reversals seem to stand up. My particular issue is that MA has talked about being there for the little guy but if seasoned traders like you guys are struggling, the little guy has no hope. When a little guy gets a post onto the blog, MA does not directly answer the question.

I think the new Socrates system has one tier too many, the earlier system (before the monthly subscription) had two levels and that seemed to work and I was interested in the basic investor service at $150 per year. I accept he cannot be giving out free info that people have paid for but let’s say a clear low in the Dow has taken place, why not say ‘this would appear to be a good buying point‘.  The pros/traders can trade such a low from the Reversals, the investors could get a prompt from the private blog, and then perhaps a little later on the public blog publish the info. Everybody gets a piece of the pie, and it might attract people to subscribe. The new system makes only the Pro version worthwhile and that looks strictly for traders only.

To be fair to MA I have made some money from the public blog and helped my confidence in investing. MA used to write a lot about USD/YEN (I think before he tried again with Socrates) so after laying out money for the metals reports (and deciding to leave Gold until it goes under $1,000 per oz) I went long USD/YEN using an ETF and I made back the fee I paid for the reports (about £200), which as a non-trader was a great result. Using his general advice that markets are headed up I have been braver to invest and have benefited. I accept we have been in a QE fuelled bull run since March 2009 and I could have got the same ‘advice’ elsewhere but MA was giving long-term new-highs equity forecasts and they have been correct, as has his general call that GBP will fall against USD so I probably have more exposure to US equities than I otherwise would and that works great for a £GBP investor.

As a non-trader investor what intrigues me was his statement a little while ago that he might license Socrates to a fund management group. It is hard to be objective about his calls if the manner of investment differs between individuals and the risk/reward consideration is often overlooked, but an openly marketed registered fund would surely put to rest any argument about the validity of Socrates as it would be judged against its peers for all to see. I don’t mean it has to beat all its peers over every time frame but if it could provide regular positive returns with low risk (high Sharpe Ratio/high Information Ratio etc) then that would attract a lot of money and fulfil his stated commitment to the little guy. Smiley