Do you still see the possibility of your Complex Scenario B playing out?
Yes, it is still possible that this is a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, termed as a wave-x, in an ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market, which fails to meet the all-time 2017 high.
For now however, the waves appear to be developing impulsively and suggesting a wave-5 is unfolding, eventually towards meeting or exceeding the all-time 2017 high.
At this point in time, a wave-x may develop in the following two scenarios:
- 1. A drop below the 09-JUN low, followed by an advance towards either 11390 or 13340 which develops in corrective waves instead of impulsive; or,
- 2. A drop below the 06-FEB low.