I have done a fair bit of neural network and evolutionary programming to predict time series and to optimize trading strategies. Stuff that far exceeds in complexity what Martin Armstrong is doing with his disaster code.

True, if you had all the data in all dimensions, a few supercomputers and hordes of programmers and analysts, you would be able to make some predictions with that. But in comparison with the pattern matching machinery in a single human brain, it would still be lacking. The human pattern matching ability is absolutely unmatched in quality. Just try. Look at thousands of charts and keep trading - you will get better and better. If you are still getting frustrated, and you will, guaranteed, then there are reasons for that: Mainly unpredictability and greed. It is as simple as that. There are events that come out of the blue, market manipulation, insider trading, just market participants trying to out-smart each other. That's the game, and it is unpredictable, random to a large extent. It is similar to getting sea-sick in a ship.

Martin Armstrong keeps telling his audience in his blogs that only his computer can manage the complexity. I do not believe it. First we know it can't be true based on the experience that has been documented here in this great blog. I have demonstrated here that Socrates is dumb. It does not even try to consolidate multiple conflicting signals. Second, we can't believe Martin's statements because he has a clear motive to sell his computer- based Socrates junk, the reports and the conferences. Third, and most importantly, all his models look only at a single time series, the market under study. The future price movement is just not hidden in the past price history as he wants us to believe. It does not matter how far back that time series goes - we know that it does not work.

And now I am going full circle. If the future price movement was in fact predictable from past price movement, then with the human pattern matching ability available to thousands if not millions, this would have been discovered long ago.

And then what? Everybody wins with that knowledge? Question: Who takes the other side of the trade?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.