What does everyone think about the idea of a Universal Basic Income?
It is gaining popularity on both sides of the political spectrum, and there are increasing numbers of live trials of the system.
The concern is that the next wave of automation will create a new class of effectively unemployable people, and that as this continues some system will need to be in place to support citizens. Waves of automation in the past have simply created new jobs in different spheres. The industrial revolution cut agricultural jobs but created factory jobs. The development of computers over the last few decades has hit manufacturing jobs but replaced them with new opportunities in the service sector. The problem is that as AI starts to take hold, many of these jobs will go as well. It used to be the case that there were always jobs that computers couldn't do, but in the future this will rarely be the case.
Universal Basic Income also removes some disincentives to work, and what is called the 'welfare trap', whereby the resulting cuts to benefits due to new part-time work can make it economically preferable to not take part-time jobs.
So as we are generally a technically minded set of people on here, with one eye always on the future, what do people think? Is UBI inevitable? Is it desirable? Personally I think probably both. It is at least worth trying. It is a step towards reducing inequality, and will provide an element of empowerment to the disenfranchised, and so perhaps alleviate some social tensions. It will also drastically simplify existing complex and expensive welfare programmes. UBI needn't be hugely expensive either, an overhaul of the taxation system to make it more genuinely progressive could free up huge quantities of money.
My personal opinion is that as the work-force dwindles the government will as-a-result collect less taxes. Not only less income tax but almost all others as-well. If I do not work then I cannot pay for vehicle registration, fishing license, property taxes...etc. The government will notice that and as a result as time progresses, the older/outdated work-force dies off; with that same progression of time what is being taught in our schools will change to reflect the change in society, resulting in a cancellation effect. We most likely will not be alive when this problem exists, we will have been replaced by a society that has been taught(trained) to function in this new world gradually over time. Therefor your theoretical problem will not exist. Criticism on my thoughts is welcomed