Your complex scenario seems to be perfectly playing both price and time. I am not convinced for the bull yet.
I would love to see your thoughts and updates about it.
Thanks for your great work.
I would love to see your thoughts and updates about it.
Thanks for your great work.
It's okay not to be convinced, but make sure to stay open to alternative theories. The biggest pitfall of EW analysis is getting married to a specific count, then continually reworking the count as it gets repeatedly invalidated. I struggled with this a lot years ago. Sometimes being "not convinced for the bull" really means "I can't see past my bear bias."
This is why it's good to always have at least two different counts you are tracking. Which count is ultimately correct may only be obvious in hindsight, hence the danger of becoming too attached to the wrong one.
My thoughts are definitely more in line with xxxx123abcxxxx's bull count. Of course, we won't be able to discard the complex bear correction scenario for quite some time yet.
you are totally right my friend... thanks for warning me. Unfortunately, EW has that downside. However the main reason why I am not convinced is the volume and altcoin movements. Of course I am aware of one of the biggest reasons for the 2017 bull start was the tether printing which we have again... But still the volume is not convincing for me...
But again I agree with marrying a specific count issue, that is one of my weaknesses too... I was so convinced that the bear has not ended so maybe still I am trapped in that phase.
Whilst is does appear and feel like the wave-x complex scenario is playing out; the details show the waves are so far unfolding impulsively, and thus implying the wave-5 simple scenario is currently in progress.
Either of the following situations are required to qualify the wave-x scenario:
1. A drop below the 06-JUN low, followed by another advance which develops in corrective waves instead of impulsive; or,
2. A drop below the 06-FEB low.
The market has now surpassed the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2018 bear market. The next major Fibonacci retracements are:
1. the 61.8% (13350/BITSTAMP)
2. the 78.6% (16125/BITSTAMP)
Given such Fibonacci levels are widely observed, it is unlikely the market terminates precisely at these levels.
A monthly view of the wave structure illustrates the sizes of the impulsive waves, since the 2019 bull market began from the FEB lows; using BITFINEX:
- wave-1: 67%
- wave-3: 63%
- wave-5: 59% (so far, 25-JUN)
At this point in time, another 10% for wave-5, and it meets the average of wave-1 and wave-3.
The following 4hr chart provides a speculative view of how wave-5 may be currently unfolding, since the 06-JUN lows; using COINBASE:
Speculation is indicative of price/structure, not time.
Code:
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit