⭐ Merited by kronos123 (1)
Since the 06-FEB-2019 low, Bitcoin has surged to retrace a Fibonacci 61.8% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into the final week of JUN-2019. True to form, the 2019 bull market has unfolded in subdividing and extending parabolic curves.
From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the 2019 bull market may be modelled as follows:
The advancing Wave-3 and Wave-5 have subdivided and extended as parabolic curves, the nature of which have been challenging to study and predict. Mania-driven markets are just about impossible to forecast as the waves extend and subdivide fractally.
A speculative look into the structure of Wave-5 which started from the 06-JUN low to 26-JUN(?) high is detailed as follows, using COINBASE:
Any additional advance may be resisted by the following Fibonacci retracement zones, using BITSTAMP:
The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves. Using the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fund as a proxy, it appears a couple of additional waves may still be outstanding to complete the waveset:
The 2019+ bull market is expected to unfold in five INTERMEDIATE degree legs: three advancing, interwoven with two declining. This waveset of five INTERMEDIATE degree legs is expected to complete an overall PRIMARY degree wave.
Should the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones fail to conclude the first leg of the bull market, and if price action marches to new all-time highs; then the advance may be considered as the entirety of the bull market inclusive of all legs:
Given the unanticipated surge in regards to both price and time; an advance to new all-time highs, without a notable pullback first, may suggest the advance is the fifth and final PRIMARY wave in its entirety.
A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index
A more orderly paced scenario would consider the 2019 advance as the first leg of the bull market nearing completion. Which when complete, leads to the first notable pullback, followed by a resumption of the uptrend:
Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.
Should the first leg of the bull market be nearing completion, the following expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:
The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 26-JUN high thus far is 140 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 70 days, it may be over by early SEP.
A decline to the 88.6% Fibonacci zone may provide the first signal to suggest a faltering bull market. A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the bull market.
Such a scenario would propose a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, in an overall ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. The 2018 low would be labelled as wave-W, the current 2019 bull market as wave-X, followed by the resumption of the secular bear market labelled as wave-Y to break below the 2018 low. Complex composite wave structures are often behaviours of commodity and currency markets:
Speculation is indicative of price/structure, not time.
From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the 2019 bull market may be modelled as follows:
Code:
+ Wave-1 (06-FEB 23-APR) : subdivided into smaller degree impulsive waves.
- Wave-2 (23-APR 25-APR) : a simple Zig Zag correction.
+ Wave-3 (25-APR 14-MAY) : a parabolic rise.
- Wave-4 (14-MAY 09-JUN) : a complex Running Flat correction.
+ Wave-5 (06-JUN 26-JUN?) : a parabolic rise.
- Wave-2 (23-APR 25-APR) : a simple Zig Zag correction.
+ Wave-3 (25-APR 14-MAY) : a parabolic rise.
- Wave-4 (14-MAY 09-JUN) : a complex Running Flat correction.
+ Wave-5 (06-JUN 26-JUN?) : a parabolic rise.
The advancing Wave-3 and Wave-5 have subdivided and extended as parabolic curves, the nature of which have been challenging to study and predict. Mania-driven markets are just about impossible to forecast as the waves extend and subdivide fractally.
A speculative look into the structure of Wave-5 which started from the 06-JUN low to 26-JUN(?) high is detailed as follows, using COINBASE:
Any additional advance may be resisted by the following Fibonacci retracement zones, using BITSTAMP:
Code:
@13340: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@16125: Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@17780: Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@16125: Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@17780: Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves. Using the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fund as a proxy, it appears a couple of additional waves may still be outstanding to complete the waveset:
The 2019+ bull market is expected to unfold in five INTERMEDIATE degree legs: three advancing, interwoven with two declining. This waveset of five INTERMEDIATE degree legs is expected to complete an overall PRIMARY degree wave.
Should the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones fail to conclude the first leg of the bull market, and if price action marches to new all-time highs; then the advance may be considered as the entirety of the bull market inclusive of all legs:
Given the unanticipated surge in regards to both price and time; an advance to new all-time highs, without a notable pullback first, may suggest the advance is the fifth and final PRIMARY wave in its entirety.
A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index
Code:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618
A more orderly paced scenario would consider the 2019 advance as the first leg of the bull market nearing completion. Which when complete, leads to the first notable pullback, followed by a resumption of the uptrend:
Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.
Should the first leg of the bull market be nearing completion, the following expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:
Code:
@8500: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (min expected zone)
@7200: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@5435: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)
@4360: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
@7200: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@5435: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)
@4360: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 26-JUN high thus far is 140 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 70 days, it may be over by early SEP.
A decline to the 88.6% Fibonacci zone may provide the first signal to suggest a faltering bull market. A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the bull market.
Such a scenario would propose a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, in an overall ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. The 2018 low would be labelled as wave-W, the current 2019 bull market as wave-X, followed by the resumption of the secular bear market labelled as wave-Y to break below the 2018 low. Complex composite wave structures are often behaviours of commodity and currency markets:
Code:
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit
Speculation is indicative of price/structure, not time.