Almost all bets and even general price predictions in this thread are base on Bitstamp, so if you expect anyone to bet with you using another exchange as your price measurement guideline, then those terms should be abundantly clear.

In other words, I could give two ratts asses what bitfinex says.. because I already mentioned in an earlier post that we tend to use stamp here, and you did not make any such clarification that you wanted to use another exchange or another set of exchanges in your bet proposal.



I don't think that it is a BIG deal if $10k breaks, and therefore, that is why I was suggesting that your making a bet on $10k holding seemed to have been against the odds. 

Of course, the longer that the price stays above $10k, then the better the odds are that $10k is going to continue to hold and any kind of movement below $10k is only temporary, but even now, as I type this post, we are so damned close to $10k (within a couple percentage points), that it could take a bit of time and effort to get sufficiently above $10k in order that we can feel that $10k is in the bag and additionally that our yearly high of $13,880 is the next to come down.. which could take a bit of time to get back to breaking above that yearly high price point, too.



I can agree with that too.  I don't tend to make predictions that go much beyond 50/50, but once in a while I might call something as having higher odds in one direction or another and it is even more rare if I might call some next step as 60/40 or higher... but at this point, I would suggest that our low of $3,122 for this cycle is about 75% or greater that it is "in" and it is not going to be breached.  Sure, these are just my opinions and feelings, but sometimes there are kind of trends that can give more or less levels of confidence.