Very true. I was initially under the impression that compliance was pretty widespread. It's the opposite really. Many dozens of monitored countries fail to implement the majority of FATF rules. This is decades after these standards were initially put in place. Often times, a mere pledge by a country to work towards implementing some of the standards is enough to stave off FATF pressure for years.
That means we'll probably see non-compliant exchanges persist for many years. My biggest concern is how compliant exchanges will interface with customers who send coins from non-compliant exchanges.
Let's say BitMEX continues their no-KYC policies in the face of these rules. What happens when you send a few bitcoins from your BitMEX account to your Gemini account? Will Gemini close your account? Seems possible to me.
Is this even possible and/or worth the time and money put into retracing transactions? Even if they (in general) agree to not receive transfers from non-compliant exchanges, how much effort will they put into it. Probably not much because time and effort = money. Who's going to pay them to retrace millions of transactions back to their origin and sending transactions back? What will happen if somebody sends money to a third party first and then to the exchange, or sends money from a casino, or from a mixer?
It's going to be one of those laws people agree to obey and then they don't like speed limits and no parking signs.