Fundamental analysis is not a guess. At certain hash rate levels and electricity rates there is a specific cost to create a coin.
You don't have all the data required to analyze mining supply. Different miners have different margins, access to more/less efficient rigs, differing electricity costs. Some like Bitmain are much better capitalized (to hold mining rewards through price drops) than others. You really have no idea where the pain points are for miners. You can only average things out with incomplete information.
More importantly, mining supply is only a small aspect of supply and demand, as pointed out earlier. Not only are you looking at incomplete information, but your analysis is based on only a small sliver of the actual fundamentals.
Of course your analysis is a guess!
Every TA (which is usually morons with rulers) was saying BTC 18k! 20k! 82.5k! On June 26-now Just absolute nonsense.
That's patently false. You aren't looking very hard.