Cheers. I'm not so hopeful for wave 5 to be the strongest wave yet, if we don't correct and consolidate along the way.
Also I'm modelling the pattern on ETHUSD daily, not exact, but it's a typical setup - flag, pop and drop. The 5th wave out of the consolidation is a sign of euphoria, everyone thinks the trend is continuing, until suddenly it isn't and it's a rush for the exit.
There is also the upper trendline on the weekly/monthly to consider. If we keep going straight up here, that is going to be around 45k and I would expect it to get front run. I don't know the mathematical term but the market has been arcing downwards, losing momentum over time.
EDIT: also fibs, extensions etc. 30k is a good target.
xxxx123abcxxxx has some good EW analysis that roughly agrees with you:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456I'm keeping EW guidelines in mind but I also think we need to consider the fundamentals underlying Bitcoin. I'm usually a technicals only kind of guy, but I've been punished hard in the past for ignoring Bitcoin's economic model in favor of EW guidelines. When the past cycles have resulted in huge exponential gains, I'm hesitant to assume it'll stop at 2x the ATH or less.
The main thing is about structure, ATH and bearish super cycle could be closer than we think if we don't take a breather and I would be interested in Luc's perspective, although he does get a bit bulltarded.
I'd love to see what he has to say. He's been a bit off the ball on his last few calls though.