Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: Is the Litecoin rally over for now?
by
Searing
on 08/07/2019, 18:40:52 UTC
Although the time for BTC has fluctuated strongly, the price of LTC is quite stable at about $ 114-120, I hope in the short term LTC can reach $ 150 and at the end of the year is $ 300.

Yes, you can see slowly altcoin starts recovering their prices in the market which is an indication which we might altcoin will start increasing their prices. I think there is plenty of space to increase the price of an altcoin. Hold it tightly until we some huge growth in terms LTC price.
I am sure litecoin can reach more than $150 this year, but if that is not happening in this year, we have the next year to see litecoin reaches that price.
Litecoin has a good way to increase, but the price now is not increase too high but stay in that level price so I think we need more time before litecoin can go to the higher price.
Meanwhile, I am sure that many people are ready to place their litecoin in the order sell and I am sure that they want to sell at the very highest price later.

Litecoin better beat $150 after the Litecoin halving or all 'heck' is gonna break loose, IMHO. A whole lot of sideways running out of desperation, even at that rate, after halving.

Right now, if you assume my 'guess' of all the equipment in the world that mines Litecoin that is still up 75% is Bitmain L3+ type units (or equivalent). Vary my guess down or up

by anything you think appropriate, looking at the below calculator. Again, this is just a guess.

Using www.litecointalk.org/calc which is a 'free pool with no fees' and pays now 101% LTC payout.

You get the following for a 'stock' (you are a bit better off underclocking...but will not show that here) Bitmain L3+ Miner.

I am using the following 500mh at 800 watts at 11c kWh (Summer rates in data hall in the USA Midwest, for me anyway) at the current price of $121 USD per Litecoin.

-11c a day. (damn that is ugly) or -$3.20 per month. (1c makes a difference at 10c kWh it would be 9c a day or +2.56 a month profit...damn you, Summer Rates!

Days before halving of Litecoin as of now: https://www.litecoinblockhalf.com/ or less than a month. 27days 20hrs as of now.

500mh
800 watts
11c kWh (Summer Rates for 4.5 months yet I think it is here)
at $121 Litecoin USD price.
Assuming, of course, the difficulty is flat.


                            Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01657349 LTC   2.01 USD   2.11 USD   -0.11 USD
7 days   0.11601444 LTC   14.04 USD   14.78 USD   -0.75 USD
30 days   0.49720474 LTC   60.16 USD   63.36 USD   -3.20 USD

What you would need for a Litecoin Price AFTER HALVING to make the same meager amount of money as of today. To make even a LITTLE BIT of profit.

500mh
800 watts
11c kWh
at $150 Litecoin USD price.
Assuming, of course, the difficulty is flat.

Days after the halving of Litecoin as of now

                                   Profitability Analysis
   Expected Rewards   Costs   Net Profit
24 hours   0.01657349 LTC   2.49 USD   2.11 USD   0.37 USD
7 days   0.11601444 LTC   17.40 USD   14.78 USD   2.62 USD
30 days   0.49720474 LTC   74.58 USD   63.36 USD   11.22 USD

37c a day. (still meh!) or +$11/22 USD per month.

So, from my 11c kWh point of view, and Bitmain L3+'s being 'tail end charlie' as far as efficiency miners at the back of the pack now.

The "worst"? we are looking at with $150 USD and say difficulty flat is kinda more of the same. Keeping the doors on the data hall open and kinda 'meh!'

Others with like 6c kWh rates etc are laughing their ass off at me. But that is the math, for the Midwest USA and Summer Rate increases. This is about 11c kWh rate.

I don't see a lot of miners (if my assumption of Bitmain L3+'s still hanging on and being 75% of stuff mining yet is correct). Anyway, not a lot of miners will drop,

the difficulty will go sideways, and what? 6 more months of meh! as it is?

So sh*t has to come back in a big way. If the price of Litecoin was to dump to say $100 USD, IMHO. That 75% of Bitmain L3+ units would then drop off the network

and likely the remainder of generations above the L3+ could do well.

But just saying, if I assume again, that everything that can run from the Bitmain L3+ on up, and that difficulty is high and gonna go sideways because everything

that can be on, is on. Then the above meh! may be in our future.

Hoping, mimblewimble and the halving will solve some of this. But I looked at the last halving and found the following.

Litecoin price on 9/8/15 price of LTC was $3.90 Price of LTC on 7/8/17 was $3.77. So the halving does not mean much. That was after 1 year and 11 months! More

or less after the last Litecoin Halving.

So yeah, altcoins, including Litecoin better come back in a big way, or this will really, really suck!

Brad