My electric is fixed/low cost (not per kWh), that is why I was saying the even older ones are a "safer" bet in that they pay their cost in 1-2 months. But obviously very little return overall since I only have 120 amps to work with in total.
I think I just missed the last pre-order with BitMain, unfortunately I don't know why they priced the latest Z11 at?
Eastshore.xyz has a decent reputation it seems from searching various forums, they still have the Z11e for sale - $1,400 for them... but the "E" batch was only 70ksol, from my searching:
https://www.eastshore.xyz/shop/antminer-z11-zcash-asic-miner-135k-for-zcash-mining/Soooo... I think the safest bet for recouping is to buy used S9, any generation (they're all similar anyway - 12-14 TH/s, right), from AliBaba. Used from eBay or Amazon would cost $650ish. But Alibaba used ones are $200-350 range, with power upply. I figure if I over-provision by 20-30%, I will have some spares/spare parts too.
Also like I said, the Z11 machines are still ramping up hashrate fast, so it seems much riskier! Feels like there could be a 500ksol machine by next year... whereas SHA-256 seems to be slowing down a bit in terms of how much hashpower per joule can be achieved. (and if not per joule, at least per dollar in ASIC cost, which is what I'm more concerned about)
GPUs just aren't doing well.

Six figures invested and will still take years to recuperate. (return is only $2k a month) Better to take the 50% hit on the gear, and put most of it into ASICs at this point I think, especially with Bitcoin out of its doldrums.