Looks like you are lacking a decent amount of confidence too, jonoiv, if you are willing to only shave 1% off of the certainty level.

Personally, I would concede that the odds of BTC reaching another low in this cycle (thus breaking below $3,122) would likely be at least 15%.  Of course, if you are suggesting lower numbers than that, then the odds would be lower, depending on how low is your prognostication.  I thought that I had seen you suggesting levels in the $1k area which is likely getting us to below 3% odds, and I am not sure if I would even go to 1% or lower odds, until maybe we start to talk about below $500....  In any event, it is difficult to place a number on it, and you seem to be conceding that your ideas are pie in the sky which should suggest that we should not even be entertaining them at all because why the fuck would we be planning our lives (or our BTC investments) around 1% scenarios?  makes sense?