Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.
Indeed. MtGox is not representative of BTC prices anymore, even moreso than when they had their +20% premium on the upside.
Who actually lost wealth on mtgox's BTC/USD price going down except for MtGox users? Coinbase, Bitpay etc. do not use MtGox prices, apart from other exchanges.
This is really interesting to watch. A few days ago I was somewhat optimistic about MtGox's chances of recovering and re-syncing, more or less, with the broader markets, but I'm much less optimistic about that now. I'm inclined to think we really are watching the death of an exchange. Nearly every major bitcoin price aggregator has abandoned MtGox and all the major non-exchange liquidity pools haven't used MtGox prices to negotiate buys and sells for many months (SecondMarket, for example).
I just hope, in a last flash of decency, Mark Karpeles takes the exchange offline voluntarily while attempting to sort out the mess. Gox needs a break!
And by "takes the exchange offline" we should mean "closes shop". For MtGox, I just don't see how they recover from this. This is an especially bad time to have another Gox-up, since in the US a lot of money from VCs and other large profitable firms is now moving to create "regulated" and professionally managed exchanges. At this point, it's just really difficult to imagine any noteworthy portion of market participants sticking with MtGox, when much better and more trustworthy alternatives already exist and even more trustworthy exchanges are on the horizon. The good guy thing for Gox to do at this point is stop the exchange, give people back as much money as they can, and close shop. Bye, bye, Gox.