the assumption was that goxBTC is fungible with BTC, otherwise its just paperBTC. In fact, before this incident goxBTC was $100 above bitstampBTC, because goxUSD was impossible to withdraw and worth less than bitstampUSD.
Well, obviously we're in agreement there because it's almost exactly what I put in my post. I also agree that people clearly currently want to be in GoxFiat rather than GoxBTC
So what are we
not agreeing about?
- As MtGox BTCs price drops relative to Bitstamp BTC, more BTCs will be bought/withdrawn on MtGox, and the cost to MtGox to make customers whole also goes up
They won't be withdrawn though, as the only people who can currently "withdraw" BTC from MtGox are MtGox themselves. Gox actually opening up BTC withdrawals again should see a large price jump on their exchange.
I'm not saying that Gox can get out of any position by using an external exchange. I'm saying that if Gox purchase 1 GoxBTC on their own exchange then they now owe $200 instead of 1BTC, so they've clearly reduced their overall debt (assuming a you consider BTC and fiat liabilities to be equally important, certainly debatable)
maybe im wrong regarding "more BTCs will be bought/withdrawn". but if gox is short BTCs, you would rather own goxUSD, but there will be some low were youd rather hold the goxBTC then sell for huge USD loss. this is what the market is currently doing, price discovery, at what price would you rather hold.
that depends on how many btcs were stolen.