IMO the most hyperbolic speculators are confused.  The exchanges are modeled after forex, and forex is a very useful analogy that almost always suffices when talking and even speculating about BTCUSD or BTC-Gold or what-have-you.

But, when one's purpose is to analyze the macroeconomics of Bitcoin and develop long term real price movement expectations the "currency" analogy breaks down.

First, BTC has no intrinsic value basis.  In fact, as with fiat currency, there is arguably an intrinsic negative real value expectation since there are costs associated with printing and carrying around and so forth (although these ultimately must be weighed against the real costs of the barter system which are clearly quite significant!)

Second, expected long-term intrinsic minting costs are (arguably) much higher with respect to BTC than typical fiat currencies, by design.  So much so, I would argue, that a "backed" currency (like, say, USD in late 19th and early 20th century) is clearly a far better analogy.

Third, even this model is deficient since, although not huge, gold, being shiny, malleable, conductive and so forth, does have real intrinsic value which creates a kind of "speculative floor."  Even if somebody figures out how to effortlessly fabricate gold from dirt, it will still retain some value because there will always be a market for it so long as civilization has not utterly collapsed.  Bitcoin has no such intrinsic value.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if we are modelling rational expectations, then the near-guarantee of scarcity and relative-to-aggregate supply-side minting difficulty (barring, I suppose, dramatic and unexpected advances in crypto-math) forms the sole basis for for any speculation about long-term price movements, by way of a demand function determined solely by the utility of BTC as a means of exchange and storage of wealth.

This means, I think, that our mid-to-long term expectations of real Bitcoin prices won't follow the same patterns that we are accustomed to seeing in forex or commodities markets.

Put another way, who fucking knows what will happen!?  It's fascinating to speculate about, but any sort of "return-to-mean, ldo" hypothesis, intrinsic value hypothesis or other chart-whisperer hypothesis probably has no basis here.  We need to think way, way outside of those boxes because the supply and demand functions of Bitcoin don't answer to the same fundamentals we are accustomed to seeing in other commodities.