Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Gold: I smell a trap
by
netrin
on 11/09/2011, 14:54:35 UTC
So one of the going stories asserts that gold should hit infinity based on historical money supply. There's certainly a relationship, but it looks to me that prices between $500 and $5000 are equally good. The current price seems within a wide band of prices way back to 1934. Does anyone have an interpretation that I don't see?

Code:
Price per oz     Years       M2 Supply      $AU/M2
===============  ==========  =============  =======
$  20.58-20.72   1833-1932   (1.28-46.60)   0.44-16.188 ($21.32 1923, $17.06 1931)
$  26.33         1933        (32.22)        0.8171
$  33.85-35.27   1934-1967   (34.36-524.8)  0.065-1.026 ($31.69 1949)
$  35.94-41.09   1968-1971   (566.8-710.3)  0.051-0.072
$  58.16-97.32   1972-1973   (802-856)      0.068-0.121
$ 124.84-193.22  1974-1978   (902-1366.0)   0.091-0.214
$ 380.68         1979        (1474)         0.258
$ 612.56         1980        (1600)         0.383
$ 317.26-460.03  1981-1997   (1755-4033)    0.079-0.262
$ 271.04-294.24  1998-2001   (4377-5431)    0.049-0.067
$ 309.73-363.38  2002-2003   (5784-6071)    0.051-0.063
$ 409.72-444.74  2004-2005   (6412-6674)    0.061-0.069
$ 603.46-695.39  2006-2007   (7033-7438)    0.081-0.099
$ 871.96-972.35  2008-2009   (8153-8531)    0.102-0.119
$1224.53         2010        (8467-8814)    0.139-0.145
$1516.54-1900    2011        (8838-9314-?)  0.163-0.215

http://kitco.com
http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab.html
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/M2SL.txt