Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion

I respect that you have more experience in TA and trading than myself, so I read Armstrong 5 years ago back in Oct 2014 forecasting:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/so-when-will-we-know/
'..we are looking at a rally into 2017-2018 with the Dow reaching the 25,000-28,000 level. That would be the minimum target objective...'
BANG ON

Did your charting back then come up with the same? (serious q - not being facetious, promise)

Private blog post Jan 1st 2018 ''..Our three primary targets were 18500, 23700, and then 36000-40000. We also mentioned there would be intermediate resistance at the 25000 and 28000 level..This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000...'

So this 32000 number was forecast way b4 the important Dec 2018 low that you used to get that same number.. so how did he do it? What charts did he use? I am honestly interested to know..

Well, without looking at my own charts and checking some online ones, if you draw a trend line from the 2016 low to to next low and extent it you will see it intersect the 25k-28k area. He, like most follow the trend and project to the future, of coarse for gains. But I usually always look down first before making a decision. Also if you look at a chart from the year 1800 to present, there are some online and MA also posted one, the Dow is nothing but ascending, the great depression is nothing but a blimp on the chart which to me shows the Dow for many reason will go up over the long term. You probably could also judge the direction from those charts also. Just for perspective he also forecasted Gold $5000+ on 11/7/2009, it's on his blog. I'll look further into this on my own charts.

Here's the link to Gold $5000+
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/gold-5000-11-7-09.pdf

Here's my Chart and how Targets can be determined. IMO the Dow from 1/2018 to recent is a correction after a long uptrend. As you can see, the Dow is attempting to continue in the steeper red trend after breaking out of the top Yellow trendline and holding the top yellow channel resistance that is now support. Just an observation and thought.
https://imgur.com/a/HnIVrIk

Thanks for clarifying and showing detailed charts. I understand that the closer you get to a date, the better you can chart a number.

What do your charts confirm for 2022 and 2024? Can you give a forecast?

Yes he's forecast maximum $5000 on gold for many years. I contrast that with others like Rickards and David H Hunter who say $10K gold. Which is it? Time will tell.

To be honest, I never looked at TA as a time scale but you can make projections. First there has to be a trend and by extending the trendline or channel forward you can guesstimate where the security will be at a particular time in the future. ONLY IF it stays within the trendline and/or channel and no unexpected condition arises, ie correction, recession, war etc, then the process starts all over again. For example IF the Dow follows the red channel and stays the coarse the Dow could be at 46720 on 6/13/2024 but IF it follows above the yellow channel it will be at the same level on 6/3/2032. Another good example is the yellow channel from 2009 to 2019, this channel was created when the Dow made it first low after the 2009 bottom, 2011. So in 2011 IF the Dow continued it upward trend (which it did) you could see where it could be in 2017. Yes, it's hindsight but shows the projections. The trend is in force until the weight of the evidence says otherwise. I posted the same chart but with the two projections on it. https://imgur.com/a/ktgh5Oe

Just a side I personally would prefer the Dow not follow the red channel since the steeper the ascent the more likely a bubble. I would prefer it continue along the yellow channel, slow and steady and less risky. But the market does what it wants, lol.

Btw this is my own personal opinion and observations.