Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
bikefront
on 20/07/2019, 04:36:35 UTC
"This is the 86-year cycle due here in 2019. This really implies that we may see a Directional Change whereby the confidence in the future will start to decline because of political instability. Of course, we can now count on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to scream about taxing the rich and their property. The Democrats WILL look into creating a major tax increases and this will seriously harm the economy. We will see a collapse in capital investment resulting in money for 30-year mortgages drying up."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/real-estate/economic-real-estate-bubbles/

I wonder what the capital investment amounts are, where they are, etc. If any Armstrong proponent wants to translate that forecast to imply a peak in something this very year, I'd like to hear it. Can't be the real estate peak because Armstrong called that in '17: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/real-estate-in-real-terms/ Yeah you can say varies by location but as a whole it can be measured in general. That can be seen by IYR, the largest Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) ETF which made new highs just a few days ago.

He also called for a real estate high in 2015: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-has-peaked/

Again, its a shame that Armstrong wasted his potential on this kind of stuff. If he only stayed in the realm of the historical and collected data arranged properly instead of trying to fit everything in to make assumptions and biased commentary to show 'he never loses', it might have been great. Endless refinement is needed. But as he said, the scope of a project is enormous- I suspect he skipped several large steps and then passed it off as the real thing. From what I gather, Ray Dalio is the closest thing to what Armstrong purports to be- he uses a large amount of data collected from various economies in different cycles/stages even from olden days in order to correlate current economies. His net worth is around 20 billion.