Even if they say they will, I believe most of the HODLERS will never "waste" their Bitcoins to buy coffee, with, or without Lightning because of the opportunity costs. Bitcoin's strength as a store of value, is also its weakness for adoption.
They might do it once. But don't hope that they will regularly use Bitcoin instead of cash or credit cards.
I understand, how about the situation with people that had bitcoin before mid-2017. For example you have 300% in profits, would you be comfortable spending some portion of that on a purchase while simultaneously purchasing that same amount of BTC so that your net bitcoin holdings don't diminish?
If HODL-ing is the primary mentality of even half of bitcoin holders, what possible incentive does bitcoin even present for usage by the common man?