I think your analysis is pretty correct.
But the real question is: will btc ever get 80% market dominance?
I don't think so.
BTC is already 9 years old and the crypto market is around 7 years old.

The market and tech has matured to the point where I think it's impossible for btc to have more than 70% market share
Right now, it seems like btc is the only thing that is doing well and just continues to dominate.
But other projects will come to rise and take big chunks of the market.
After all, btc is almost always only an entry point for investors.