I do not think that excessive confidence is always good for trader.
I suppose that trader should consider all possible scenarios and do not rely only on someone's analysis. Personally i try to make my own market research but often my predictions match with predictions of Monfex. I found this platform on Trading View and sometimes read their trading ideas.
It's never a good idea to be very confident in trading and make decisions as fast as you can.Remember that this crypto market is so hard to predict so we should be very careful with our own decisions especially when the market price suddenly crashed.I'm satisfied with a slow trading profits as long as i never get lose too much and make good profits most of the time.
I'm completely agree with you. Trading it's quite a risky thing because markets are unpredictable. In order to maximize your profit you should take into account all the small things.