Could u please elaborate a bit more on how did you conclude to the 40% chance?
He obviously just did the simple math to divide the Gox market price by the the Bitstamp rate e.g.
Correct ! but prices in EUR/btc , so gox price against bitcoin.de price.
That's what the market price is telling us all ! people that buy and sell coins consider gox.coin about 60 % less valuable than other coins. Thats a measured perception of risk !