I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.
Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?
Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.
Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?
Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?
In short, there is no particular reason to think the next financial crisis will tip over the apple cart.
Most likely, yes, but I am troubled by a fact that Albert Edwards keeps being proven right (in the long run).
He long predicted that Japanese experience in 1989-2009 will repeat itself, first in EU, then US and it started to happen with negative yields, no growth, etc.
He predicts US 10 year notes eventually close to -1%. Imagine that.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/21/albert-edwards-on-the-problems-facing-the-us-italy-and-chinaHis key prediction was that over the next 12- to 18-month period, U.S. bonds yields will decline and converge with those in Germany and Switzerland. Those yields will end up in negative territory, according to Edwards.
Well, we had driven 30 year down from 3.5 to 2% in a space of just 10 months (almost a 43% decline). More to come, most likely.
We don't know how this would affect bitcoin. Probably a mixed basket.
TL;DR If A. Edwards is right (and he certainly was on bonds) and we are going down 75-80% in equities in the next recession, I wouldn't be so sure about the apple cart
Every man and his dog have now successfully predicted a recession over the 18 months.
This to me is proof a recession will not happen in that time frame.
The economist Brad de Long has noted that three of last four recessions were from unforeseen shocks in financial markets (the collapse of the dot-com bubble, the real estate bubble and the S&L crisis).
The current bond inversion is sufficiently foreseen that this recession will be avoided.