trading is not about knowing what the price is going to be or when simply because it is impossible to "know" it without a magical power!
trading is all about speculation which is a fancy world for educated guess. in other words you analyze the market, the value of what you are trying to buy and then decide whether the value of it is higher or lower than the current price and also analyze whether in the future it is going to gain value or lose it (base on utilities).
for bitcoin, $3000 was a lot lower than the intrinsic value of bitcoin. which meant price shouldn't have even reached there in first place and that makes buying at that price an excellent choice. now even if price went any lower you still wouldn't have lost anything. why? take a look at current price!
and that is how trading should work. not based on luck and random guesses based on gut feeling.
I thought that same successful traders that we have in the market are the ones that usually advise against trading based on gut feeling, if they are to talk of things that needs to be abstained from in trading, part of the listed thing will be gut feeling because it makes people to trade with emotion and we know that trading and emotion are not friends at all, they dont work hand in hand and they will never be able to work and make a trade successful.
The best way to me for anyone to succeed in trade is to develop the major strategy that has always been very helpful to majority of trades, and if you can develop a strong technical and fundamental analysis strategies, then I would not see any reason why a trader should not be successful, but trading on gut feeling? I dont know about that.