and I am NOT a trader.
if you are NOT a trader then you have no understanding of short term movements of bitcoin and you don't get to "predict" them either 
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if random guesses from amateurs performed better than predictions from Brian Kelly, Tom Lee, and other prominent "experts."
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I can read the charts somewhat. Every analyst is pointing out right now that there is a descending wedge, coiling price, and dropping volume. They are also claiming a symmetrical triangle. A lot of them are expecting a break to the upside because we are technically in a bull market.
"every analyst" was also seeing these descending wedges when price wasn't going up and was stuck in $3k range and they were "all" predicting price to fall down to $1000. the rest is history Descending wedges are a bullish pattern, perhaps a weak performer though. This is what Tom Bulkowski has to say about them: http://thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html
The OP is saying everyone else is bullish and he's taking the contrarian position.
sentiment is confused and undecided. it is neither positive nor negative.
I more or less agree, and that's one of the reasons I don't think we're ready to go up yet. Longs are high, shorts are low, and sentiment is not bearish. If anything it's leaning bullish. These aren't the usual conditions from which a significant upside breakout occurs. It's usually when everyone expects down that we go up. We're not there yet.
Possibly. Ive been in this space since 2014 and check my history here. I am definitely an amateur but I go with my gut