Politics itself is a game, but not really a game of luck in every country. in advanced countries like the USA and China it is still easier to predict with higher chances after manifesto.well, in some countries like mine where your prediction is right and after election, the winner is deprived of the position.it is very dangerous and violent to go gambling about it. so i don't do it at all.
I am never interested in politics so the question of politics is just out of the question for me.
By the way the idea on gambling on politics is good one and this can be applied on the gambling on the celebrities too. We can gamble like how much dollars the next Hollywood movie will do the business and this will be interesting betting option.