Listened to Dan Hardy's breakdown and I kinda like Dustin's chances here. He should be the one pressing the action and not simply reacting to Khabib's move if he ever wants to win this championship match. He can also take advantage of the Khabib's possible "ring rust" from months of layoff.
I usually like his break downs but most of his predictions never come true and you can go back and watch all of his analysis in the past, there is no ring rust for Khabib, he is not known as a party animal who goes out of shape if he is not fighting, he always spars even if he is not fighting and that is his life style and you cannot match that, he is a complete animal unless there is a freak knockout i do not see Dustin defeating Khabib, i see him mauling in the first two rounds and then he might stand up with Dustin for the third round and then go for the submission.
Definitely a fighter who hasn't fought for months or years in the octagon could have ring rust issues. However, elite fighters have the ability to shrug it off as soon as they got the fell of the environment. Specially if Khabib can somewhat caught by Justin, his instinct will be back for sure. And I also agree that Dustin has a slim change against Khabib. Probably will go for KO early but when Khabib takes him down then it's over.