PRO-TIP: all bitcoin TA and speculation is just guessing. Nothing more to it than that. 
It is literally impossible to account for enough of the economic activity in crypto to generate any meaningful numbers. There is still nothing wrong with it. Guessing is fun.
It is literally impossible to account for enough of the economic activity in crypto to generate any meaningful numbers. There is still nothing wrong with it. Guessing is fun.
There are guesses and there are educated guesses. Good TA practitioners fall in the second category. They acknowledge that markets are unpredictable, for exactly the reason you mention: markets are composed of millions of variables and no one can account for them all. But I strongly believe (as someone who has traded successfully for almost a decade) that rigorous application of back-tested TA methods can achieve success > 50% of the time. Over the long run, that will equate to a sustainable win rate for traders who employ proper risk management.