The US and squeaky clean services like Gemini and Bitpay will comply, but it'll be interesting to see what the rest of the world does.
If they do, that will push other companies to comply too, to be able to do business with those that do comply.
Definitely, but there is still a
huge demand for KYC-free services. You can tell as much by the way Binance operates: They are willing to segregate their markets rather than go fully compliant. It's also basically a given that a host of countries won't be complying with the FATF travel rule, leaving the door open to non-compliant exchanges.
And that's where things get interesting. Are the Coinbases and Geminis and Bitpays of the world going to blacklist outputs from exchanges like Binance? Bitmex? Smaller altcoin and derivatives exchanges?