betting on the ball is quite difficult, many surprises occur therein. many small teams are able to frustrate large teams because the strategies implemented can be balanced, even defeated. I don't win bets often because I'm often hit by surprises that I don't even think can happen.
Yes you absolutely correct placing a bet on soccer make come out not as direct as anyone initially thought. Upset is like a fibre in the anatomy of sport betting, but their are some pointer you could look into before the match. I usually check which player is down with injury how is the starting eleven like and what formation, take for example the osasuna vs FC Barcelona I played I checked the starting squad and top players where missing(that shouldn't be an excuse for Barcelona) but the coach on his own is not playing some player in their right role(example de jong) the squad is talented but need more tactical formation, I do take advantage of those lapses from top teams.