It was easier 2 years ago.big news were effect the market but its not the same anymore.
I think that it was even difficult that two years or three years ago because not many understood bitcoin and how it volatility can be. It was after the 2017 volatility and bull that high and over rated predictions starts coming into bitcoin. I think because people have started believing in it now than before.
Not actually we should have to stay for that long in order to know how to speculate Bitcoin price. We can do our speculation right now even we are new into crypto, what we only have to do is to read crypto history and events, there you could find ideas and tried to make our own.
Market prediction is not to be 100% accurate, not that cause prices often to move every minute, we only have a clue but not to the extent that it will make near to what we are predicted to happen.