Bitcoin has never been through a recession, and so we don't know how owners of and investors in Bitcoin will react.
this is what has led bitcoiners to very binary thinking. one side believes a run for the exits in stocks = excess money flowing into bitcoin. the other side believes bitcoin will get dumped just like all other "risky" assets. i tend to fall into the second camp.
institutional investors will enter "risk off" mode and exit any long positions in crypto. retail investors will lose jobs/bonuses, depleting disposal investment income and forcing them to sell their bitcoin stashes.
1. Retail investors by and large, will need to sell/spend their Bitcoin to pay their expenses and suppor themselves through the recession. So this could cause a dip in the price and a lessening in demand throughout the period.
2. Institutional investors may well choose to sell Bitcoin during the recession, in order to move funds into less volatile assets such as Gold.
3. Wales will likely hold their Bitcoin, and even pick up additional Bitcoin during any dips in the price, believing that Bitcoin will outlast the recession and will be far more valuable within the next 5, 10, and 15 years.
4. There won't be any parabolic rises seen in Bitcoin as a result of FOMO after the halving. This requires retail investors who have excess cash, or access to cheap credit, both of which are lacking during recessions.
i agree with points #1-3, although i think investors would move to cash more so than gold.
#4 depends on the timing of the recession. the downturn may not appear in earnest until
after the next bitcoin bubble, maybe in 2021+. too many people are expecting a top in the stock market right now. this bull market could easily extend another year or more.