I think it's important to consider what impact the recession that's upcoming will have on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has never been through a recession, and so we don't know how owners of and investors in Bitcoin will react.
My thinking is as follows:
1. Retail investors by and large, will need to sell/spend their Bitcoin to pay their expenses and suppor themselves through the recession. So this could cause a dip in the price and a lessening in demand throughout the period.
2. Institutional investors may well choose to sell Bitcoin during the recession, in order to move funds into less volatile assets such as Gold.
3. Wales will likely hold their Bitcoin, and even pick up additional Bitcoin during any dips in the price, believing that Bitcoin will outlast the recession and will be far more valuable within the next 5, 10, and 15 years.
4. There won't be any parabolic rises seen in Bitcoin as a result of FOMO after the halving. This requires retail investors who have excess cash, or access to cheap credit, both of which are lacking during recessions.
My assumptions are based on research I've carried out and summarised in the below video:
https://youtu.be/faAjgUZJu0kHow do you think the recession will affect Bitcoin?
It can happen that recession come after the bull run and next ATH. There is less and less chances for that but it still is a chance. Also. Biggest chunk of wealth is in hands of small elite. They dont need to sell anything since have plenty of everything already or most likely dont have any Bitcoin now. When they see things crash they might consider it. Of course Gold will be strong contender here. If recesion strikes next year, that will for sure postponed the bull run of current bitcoin cycle.