Looking at the weekly candles, we've only tested it twice. One more would be typical of a triangle. I agree with you that repeatedly hammering support often suggests an eventual breakdown, but it's not a hard rule either. The $200 area in 2015 is one example where that thinking failed.
That situation was a bit different though. The price was bouncing between $200-$300 for almost a whole year, with more $300 touches than $200 based on Bitstamp's chart. Currently we're not hammering the same horizontal resistance level, but lower ones as the resistance descends further and further.
Another difference is that we back in 2015 were in the process of bottoming out with how exhausted the sellers were, while currently we might be in the process of topping out with how bearish the triangular formation is. On top of that, at current levels there are a lot of profits that haven't been taken yet, so I'm currently favoring a bearish outcome.
Eiter way, current volumes for Bitcoin are extremely low. Judging by the wicks up and down it seems that market movers have a great time toying around. I'm not going to take a trade unless we break in either up/down direction.