Tell that to professional sports bettors and poker players
Magic words. Professional bettors. I wonder how many of freebitco.in's player base call themselves pro's. You can't be a pro if you don't make a living out of it.
Probably not a lot. But even one is still infinitely times more than your blanket statement that no one gambles for +EV.
But hey, you can keep sticking to your free rolls if you want.
I don't think it is +EV when you lose. (In your example, Arsenal won, it wasn't a draw)
Your calculations don't take the probability of landing on a fixed result match neither. (yeah sometimes people cheat)
All I am saying is, you can increase your chances by doing fancy calculations, to an extent but in the end it is still about your luck. +EV is not guaranteed.
Clicking the button however, is %100 +EV, that's why it pays so little.
That's not how EV works. Positive Expected Value means that for each bet placed, you're expected to profit that much. Basically a negative house edge. However, there's still short term variance, so you could win or lose a lot more. It should balance out in the long run though. I'll put it in simple terms for you: If I give you a 1/6 chance of winning, but give you a payout of 14x, are you expected to make a profit in the long run? (Hint: the answer is yes)
+EV can be guaranteed if you know what you're doing.
Keep in mind that we're talking about the English Premier League, the largest and most watched soccer league in the world. I'm not going to pretend that the chances are absolutely 0 without knowing but I'm talking about, but the chances are low enough that I don't care. It's certainly not a larger than 6% chance and even then, the outcome could still be fixed on what I'm betting on. This isn't some third tier Norwegian football being played here.