Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Big drop in hashrate
by
wndsnb
on 27/09/2019, 16:58:23 UTC
Looks like hashrate is back up.

there is no evidence the hashrate ever fell

it cannot go "back up" if it did not even fall

Maybe I'm missing something, but it looks to me like there were only 114 blocks mined on 9/23.

596163 to 596276

you're disagreeing?


100EH/s at 11.8T diff should produce 170 blocks/day on average. If the nethash was actually at 100EH/s, the probability of getting <= 114 blocks is .00000319. Pretty unlikely.
90EH/s at 11.8T diff would average 153 blocks/day. Probability of <= 114 blocks is 0.000587, which is getting into the range of possibility, but still a once in a 5 year kind of event.

oh I see, you're not disagreeing, because you know that the rate of blocks getting discovered is probabilistic


The "evidence" is circumstantial, and depends on if you think there is a greater chance that a good chunk of the nethash went down temporarily than a 0.059% chance of just having a really unlucky day for the network. I just wouldn't say there is no evidence.

meanwhile, difficulty adjusted yesterday. Did the the difficulty drop?

Not sure what that has to do with a single day drop in nethash. If we had >114 blocks on the 23rd the difficulty would have increased more yesterday.