Hello Everyone,
I suppose everyone is well aware that the next Bitcoin halving will be around May 2020 which makes it 7 months before the halving.
Previous two halvings happened on 2012-11-28 and 2016-07-09.
Looking 7 months before the halving in 2012 and 2016 I don't see a parallel for the current situation. I'm not sure how much of a market we can talk about in April 2012 but the December of 2015 probably was a valid and well quite developed market, yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).
So how is it different now? What actually triggered the sell-off and why it happened?
- Is it just random walk and it will recover in 2 weeks?
- Is it the futures market swinging it?
- Is it the deteriorating economic conditions?
- Something else?
To me this looks like the sell-off during November 2018 when we went from $6300 to $3100 in matter of 4 weeks which made absolutely no sense to me either.
Any thoughts especially with references are greatly appreciated.
Reference:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supplyYour confusion comes from the fact that you are trying to use the past to interpret the future and you expect the markets to move in the same exact way and things do not work like that, the circumstances that happened back in the day are not the same ones that are happening right now, it is better to just watch the price and respond to its movements instead of trying to make sense of all of this since there so many factors to take into consideration that make impossible to draw parallels between those events.