yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).
It's more "normal" back then because volatility was expectedly very high, but it's pretty much the same today. Liquidity might got higher, but it's still almost just as volatile.
One thing you should remember: regardless how much bitcoin is being generated per block, heck, it could be .01 BTC per block, but if there isn't enough demand to clear off the sell offers on exchanges, don't really expect a price rise. Though supply is definitely a huge factor, demand is still the biggest factor.
It would vary all in demand because this would work on the very basic principle of economics.If we cant see those
high number(demands) then we cant expect for a price rise.People do keep speculating the upcoming halving event
possibilities.We cant deny that we have seen or experience the history of price rise of btc after these events but there
were no guarantees that we would able to hit it up once again.