Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity
by
fillippone
on 08/10/2019, 19:45:57 UTC


This post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191012.msg52693516#msg52693516 also about the in-sample period or in-sample forecast.



In the attached post:
In-sample size is 4 (yearly October Data 2009-2012 - before first halving).
Out of sample size is 7 (yearly October Data 2013-2019 ).

This model was only deemed to show that with only 4 data you already get the stock to flow dynamics and you can correctly predict 2019 prices using only 2009-2012 data!

It is a different model from the full model that took in account I believe 111 monthly data points between 2009 and 2019 (r2 is also different).