So, basically, 95% of the Bitcoin market is fake volume and/or unregulated and therefore it is not possible to monitor the market for manipulation. Also, that 95% can't be separated from the real 5% in a reliable way that prevents the fake/unregulated/manipulated exchanges from affecting the price of the real exchanges and therefore, the ETF is denied.
sounds about right
Based on that, i don't see how it will ever be approved.

well.... maybe..... I mean.....
They'll probably view it differently once Bitcoin starts carving out its space in the financial system
This is uncharted waters, even for the SEC.