Your analysis is good but based on my experienced and analysis on ethereum it's still follow on the move of bitcoin in other words if bitcoin will go down right now ethereum will also follow this is the power of bitcoin, but yet its a good move for ethereum to hold the $180+ level.
Everything is very much still connected to what Bitcoin does unless there is an altcoin season, which I don't see happen any time soon. People need to be aware of that and make a rational decision and not just fomo in.
A lot of people have been trapped in buying overly expensive altcoins because they were "breaking out" in a bullish way. Bitcoin did not agree with that and the whole market took a massive dive as result of that.
I think that if Bitcoin goes back to $5-$6k, we might see Ethereum back to $100-$120 which I will use to stack up on Ethereum. I did so last year and I'll happily do it again. It's too good of an opportunity to say no to.