IMO it's easier to bet on politics than an NBA game.
Especially if that is president election. We know who is win in president election when a lot of people talk to him. From your username i know maybe we're from same country and last president election really can be predictable.
Yes, if it is like that. You will have the idea on who's the candidate that has a stronger call for its citizens. The majority will have the say and if you're following the politics that's on the list, well you're on the good timing to bet.
I never bet on politics. It's too risky. Because if you don't know about politics, you will lose. Again, many times it is already clear who will win the next elections in many countries. Many times everyone thinks that this team will win, then the opposite happens. Overall, it's a high risky thing.
I don't think that it's too risky as you describe. Let's say that there are 5 candidates but you will see that 2 of them to go at the top then from the remaining two, that will be the time that you have to choose from any of them.